Alternative Energy Options
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Let’s take a look at our energy options. We really do have a lot of important decisions to make. How much energy do we need to enjoy life? What kind of energy will we choose? What is our CO2 footprint? Really, how serious is global warming?
This is Oil: On the right is the delayed coker at Sincor in Venezuela. I designed the controls for this unit.
Have we taken gasoline availability for granted? What would the price need to rise to in order for you to actual use less than 50% of what you used last year? Will that be the price of gas 10 years from now?
This is coal and a typical coal fired power plant.
This is conventional Nuclear power. Like many power sources it just makes a lot of heat to make steam and then the steam is passed through turbines to convert a fraction of the heat energy into electric power.
Nuclear power. We know how to make both fission and fusion bombs, that release large quantities of energy very quickly. We have figured out how to control fission reactors, but! The fission reactions release solids, liquids, and gases that make a number of long lived radioactive byproducts. The Tokomak fusion reactor design on the left is the most promising design for controlled fusion that will make heat we can convert to electric power. Fusion reactors produce a tiny fraction of the radiation of fission reactors. So far we have not been able to figure out how to make one release heat we can use to generate electric power.
We all know about Natural Gas, it is mostly methane (CH4). Natural Gas has a lower CO2 footprint, and current price controls make it a bargain at the moment. It will decline along with the liquid fuels. Propane is not regulated however is much more expensive than natural gas, and has a higher CO2 footprint.
Hydro power is great from a CO2 and energy efficiency perspective; although most but not all hydro sites have already been developed. Dams do disrupt fish migration and the natural cycles of water flow.
Solar energy is our main long term option. The sunlight hitting the earth in 5 minutes could supply all of the world’s power for 1 year if it could only be captured and used at 100% efficiency. 100% efficiency is not possible, but 90+% efficiency is possible for heating and conversion to electricity can have over 30% efficiency.
The sun looks like it will be around for a long long time and it will continue to generate a steady supply of energy.
The suns light energy can be directly converted to DC power with photovoltaic cells. Wind power is also a form of solar energy, and can be quite useful as a power source in areas that get steady and strong winds.
Wood energy is also solar energy. Wood is mostly carbon, and that carbon came from the air. Interestingly, the best thing to do is to grow a lot of wood and don’t burn it, as this practice would give a net reduction of CO2 from the air. Even if wood or other Biomass is burned it can have a neutral overall impact on CO2 as long as production and consumption is balanced. We do remember when New England was virtually clear cut in the late 1800’s. Forests are great but management is needed. I have found by personal experience that Masonry stoves can be very efficient, and also clean and safe. We heated for more than 20 years with only a single Russian Stove, lit once per day (twice on days below 15 DEGF) and were toasty warm (aka 75 DegF) with less than 2 cords of wood per year.
My personal experience with a masonry wood stove has shown it to be very effective. We come in from the New England winters to lean against our stove strategically placed in the kitchen. We extended ours though the ceiling so that you can step on the warm tile floor in the bathroom above.
Problem #1 The price of Energy The price of energy has gone up sharply in recent years. The estimates for peak oil vary somewhat as many companies, counties, and organizations have misstated their proven reserves. Best I can make of it is that peak oil will be reached by about 2010. As we go forward, there will be less crude oil entering our oil refineries, and less finished products leaving them. The combination of human population growth and worldwide demand for oil has put us in a fierce global competition for a declining resource.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oilM. King Hubbert was a Shell geologist. He was ridiculed in 1956 for predicting US oil production would peak in 1965-1970. 15 years later he became a legend, when he was proven correct. He used a bell shaped model to predict the production of oil wells over there lifespan. Oil production in the US peaked in 1967 and has been declining ever since. Drilling for oil in our most pristine National Parks only shows how desperate we are and how willing we have become to sacrifice for our addiction. We know this problem exists, but we seem paralyzed into inaction and continue to consume and import oil as if it will never end. This problem is not unlike the Whale Oil industry about 100 years ago, except we had mineral oil to move to, and we did not have problem #2: Global Warming. We can still have a warm house, a vehicle to get to work and play, and power to run our wonderful machines and electronic devices, but we need to choose our new equipment carefully as energy consumption and liquid fuels especially, will become increasingly expensive. The recent hydrocarbon price increases are not temporary; they will seem like a bargain in just a few years.
Problem #2 Global Warming The US energy consumption is heavily favoring Carbon based fuels. Our Electric power is generated with 60% Coal, 20% oil. Hydro and nuclear power is most of the balance. Hydrocarbons are particularly useful for transportation fuels in Jets, Trains, Boats, and Cars. Personally, I am quickly shifting my energy consuming possessions to more efficient equipment, especially for home heat and personal transportation. Unfortunately Carbon reacts with oxygen in the air to make CO2. As hydrocarbons are mostly carbon, they make a lot of CO2. So called anthropogenic (Human generated) CO2 is small compared to naturally generated CO2, but humans have steady produced CO2 increased the inventory of CO2 in the atmosphere. Now I have modeled a lot of processes myself, but nothing remotely as complex as our entire planet. When it comes to models we have a saying: “All models are wrong, some are useful”. Atmospheric models will have errors and will not be perfect, but we must use them as there is nothing better. It may be that mankind eventually can control our planets temperature, or perhaps create a livable atmosphere on Mars. We are getting warmer. It may be that we would benefit by being a little warmer, but we don’t have any real idea of the consequences. Our current CO2 concentration is not a reasoned result of us controlling our environment, but only the byproduct of our growing population and massive consumption of available resources. See the R2 controls Global Warming page for more details on this important subject.
The human race is a victim of their (our) own success. We now have only 6 acres of land per person. Our economists tend to ignore the Law of conservation of Mass and Energy at our peril. We rate the strength of our economy based on how fast we dig out of acre 1 and make waste dumps on acre 6. Faster would appear to be better. We have run out of new frontiers and there is no place like Earth in our solar system to expand to, and the next closest sun is very, very far away. Bacteria would simply consume all of its resources and die in its own waste. If humans are smarter than bacteria, they better start acting like it. It does not have to be like this. We need to quickly transition to a sustainable long term energy system, and focus the creative energy of scientists, engineers, blue & white collar workers, farmers and others on transforming our industries, businesses, and communities.
Some of our corporate leaders and business managers often find it easier to lobby our government to avoid change and competition, than to transform their business to serve societies real needs. Few companies today would act the way Dupont managers did when they became aware of the Ozone depleting effects of Freon. Dupont managers closed down the business, found alternatives, and transformed the business segment. These actions have clearly made improvements to preserve our protective ozone. Actual ozone levels while still somewhat low appear to have bottomed out since about 1995. Unlike Dupont, the Oil business tends to be purely hydrocarbons, so both Oil producing and refining companies cannot easily shift there attention to other markets, although BP and Shell have made significant efforts to create business in the area of Solar energy.
Some oil companies like Exxon/Mobil have focused on the production side, others like Tesoro and Valero have focused on less profitable refining. The pain of high prices can focus consumer resentment, but oil companies make high quality products that are obviously in high demand. The CO2 problem and peak oil will change the nature of the oil industry. The refinery of the future will need to add COAL LIQUIFACTION, BIOMASS CONVERTER, as new processing units to allow supplementing conventional and increasingly synthetic crude oils. Oil refineries can increasingly export electric power and liquefied CO2 as the new solid feed stocks are processed with increased gas generation suitable for power turbines.
I hope that every Chemical Engineer and oil worker is really upholding their own responsibility and code of Ethics (AICHE).
Hold paramount the safety, health and welfare of the public and protect the environment in performance of their professional duties.
As engineers we take the lead from our business managers. Let’s hope these managers are aware of the facts, and upholding their company’s responsibilities to the public and not only the short term profit motive of their stockholders.
CO2 is a pollutant, and the EPA must take the lead to control the CO2 concentration. We have basically 3 options:
A friend asked me, if you were in charge of solving this problem, what would you do? This is a great question for an engineer. Here are the answers of this engineer. Luckily I am not a Politician that would need to sell these solutions to the public, as it is clear that these solutions would be politically difficult, even if they are the right medicine for the ailment. Here are 10 things I would do:
Many people shrug and say I'm not worried, they will come up with something. It would be fabulous if some secret technology being hidden by the government or the oil companies, etc., would be suddenly revealed and make the energy problem go away. Yes we do have some dreams, and we do have a few brilliant minds working on the problem, but it is looking like our current energy diet will be viewed as extravagent in just a few years. It seems highly unlikely that Fusion power reactors will be operational in the next 10 years. The human population of the Earth shows some slowing, but still continues to increase. Hydrocarbon liquid fuels will continue to sharply increase in price as we reach peak oil within the next 10 years with increasing world demand. The food vs. fuel debate will emerge as an urgent ethical problem as farmland is shifted to BIO fuels. I predict continued Bio-Fuel expansion, but a shift away from ethanol towards more direct conversion to liquid fuels. The pressures for CO2 emission reductions to reduce global warming could result in a carbon tax, expanded Cap and Trade agreements, or other incentives to conserve. I predict liquid hydrocarbon products (gasoline/diesel) related products at over $11 per gallon in the USA by 2018. While this may sound high, consider that the price of gasoline in 2001 was $1.55 and has doubled in only 7years, diesel has doubled in 4 years, and we have not yet reached the point where worldwide production of oil is declining. Also consider that during the Katrina price spike we observed only a 5% reduction of consumption showing how inelastic the US consumption is with changes in prices. Growing Asian economies can and will compete for limited oil. Declining oil production is a new era not unlike the decline in whale oil a century ago. Natural Gas is currently a bargain, and it has a relatively low CO2 footprint, but it would quickly catch up to oil, if restrictions on power plant and industrial use are lifted. Ironically consumer price protection prevents the price of Natural gas from rising, which would stimulate higher production. Coal should be relatively stable as domestic supplies are very large. Regulations to remove CO2 from new or existing coal fired plants would increase the cost of electricity. It is a political question if the power industry will be compelled to capture CO2 on a significant scale in the next 10 years. Electric prices will increase, but at a lower rate than hydrocarbon fuels. Wood and wood pellets could face increased demands to drive up the price as these renewable sources are limited. We risk wiping out our forests if we shift from traditional hydrocarbon fuels to wood for heat and conversion to liquid fuels. All energy prices will increase faster than inflation in general. My guess is that Nuclear Energy will gain new interest, but will not make a large contribution in this timeframe. Nuclear Energy without subsidies would be very expensive. We all remember Chernobyl and the massive damage it caused, never mind the security and pollution concerns that come with existing Nuclear Power technology. Higher energy prices will drive major innovations in auto efficiency, public transport, the use of coal for power and liquid fuels, solar energy, wind energy, farming, and home energy conservation. Reliable and reasonably safe light weight 150 mpg vehicles (like the Loremo) will be available before 2018. Many companies and people will regret not purchasing more efficient equipment especially when they made upgrades in 2008, as they never predicted such high prices in 2018.

| Energy Source | Efficiency | Vehicle efficiency comments |
| Hydrogen | 90% | Fuel Cell |
| Electricity | 90% | Battery Vehicle |
| E100 Ethanol | 25% | Otto Cycle Piston Engine |
| LPG (Propane) | 25% | Diesel cycle Piston Engine |
| B100 Pure BioDiesel | 35% | Otto Cycle Piston Engine |
| E85 Ethanol | 25% | Otto Cycle Piston Engine |
| Kerosene | 35% | Diesel Cycle Piston Engine |
| Gasoline (Premium) | 25% | Otto Cycle Piston Engine |
| Diesel | 35% | Diesel Cycle Piston Engine |
| Gasoline (Regular) | 25% | Otto Cycle Piston Engine |
| #2 Fuel Oil | 25% | Diesel Cycle Piston Engine |
| Natural Gas (Methane) | 25% | Otto Cycle Piston Engine |
| Wood Pellets | 10% | Rankine Cycle Steam Engine |
| Air Heat Pump COP3 | N/A | Not Applicable |
| Wood (White Pine) | 10% | Rankine Cycle Steam Engine |
| Coal | 10% | Rankine Cycle Steam Engine |
| Wood (Red Oak) | 10% | Rankine Cycle Steam Engine |
| GW Heat Pump COP8 | N/A | Not Applicable |
The data above show some possibilities. Now depending on your vehicle, your efficiency might be different. Gasoline engines only convert about 25% of the fuel energy into shaft work; diesels convert about 35% and thus have an advantage even when the fuels are priced equal based on energy content. Turbines can be up to about 46% efficient, they can handle high altitude, and with low weight they are a good fit for aircraft. Combined cycle turbines at a stationary power plant can be about 57% efficient with hydrocarbon fuels, and when used in a co-generation mode the waste heat can be put to useful commercial functions like making steam or hot water. Electric vehicle is 80-90% efficient. H2 Fuel cells are in the range of 90% efficient. It is inherently difficult to obtain high efficiency for heat engines, as the second law of thermodynamics limits due to the operational temperatures. Higher efficiencies can be obtained with higher combustion temperatures and lower sink (air) temperatures. External combustion engines like steam engines are a possibility, and a wood powered car is possible, but unlikely unless we can make a much more efficient external combustion engine than the old steam engines. Electric cars will be the future, but only when we convert our power industry to reduce it’s massive CO2 footprint.